tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3619346926253451029.post54599623798028037..comments2024-03-27T05:10:28.656-07:00Comments on Strategic Macro: Fading inflation (and the Fed?)Strategic macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13718957223946001551noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3619346926253451029.post-65239035857149063912022-10-08T06:35:32.219-07:002022-10-08T06:35:32.219-07:00the US 10yr yield went to 2.51% at the end of July...the US 10yr yield went to 2.51% at the end of July, roughly a 100bps reversal of the prior high in mid-June as the market looked for a growth scare that never really materialised in the hard data, only the soft survey data. <br />The economy did then accelerate in Aug/ Sept and now the 10yr is nearly at 4% and looking to go towards 4.5% I think and equities have sold off. I think we can have a bear market equity rally now to the low 4000s and then a bigger sell off into year end.<br />I now think a US recession, ie job losses to speak of will likely be in Q1 next year not the second half of 2023. Strategic macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13718957223946001551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3619346926253451029.post-69510350255335803132022-10-08T05:14:43.663-07:002022-10-08T05:14:43.663-07:00Well, the Fed has proven what you know........Well, the Fed has proven what you know........It's NOT Rocket Sciencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08086872173867098161noreply@blogger.com