Wednesday 1 November 2017

US heading towards oil self sufficiency

Interesting weekly EIA numbers. 

US demand is down YoY, domestic supply up, exports up, net imports collapsed. YoY US inventories down 5%. 2MMbpd more of shale supply would more or less make the US self sufficient if oil demand continues to shrink. 

But globally its the opposite picture with ongoing demand growth and supply slightly less than demand as the capex cutbacks since 2014 dont seem to really have been felt yet in non-OPEC, non-shale production.  

Nevertheless Brent is over $60, more or less doubling from the bottom last year.

A few years ago who would ever have thought that a new technology, combined with demand weakness would almost make the US oil self suffient?!?

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