Thursday, 19 July 2018
FX moves: USD, EUR, JPY, CNY
The Yen and the CNY. One of the cheapest majors and one of the most expensive. On say a 2 year time horizon it might be time for the Yen to rally and CNY to devalue... with a target of >7.5c/ Yen
USD also on the cusp of a breakout
So USD up this year on a rate hike funding short squeeze, potentially a violent top. Then at some point in 2019 as the US transitions into an inflation cycle, a long term (burn off the debt) bear market starts to emerge.
For the Euro to be genuinely strong though I think we need a crisis and then an EIB bond financed belt and road plan to invest what you could call the Rhine valley goods surplus. Italy can engineer the show down on that.