Wednesday 12 June 2019

Will the Fed hike or cut by the end of next year? The market current has 4 cuts priced

Thought this was an interesting article. There were ~4 rate cuts into the end of next year priced in Fed funds futures last week.

There are well known areas of slowdown in industry (autos, prime residential, trade) plus bricks and mortar retail. But apart from that the economy is growing, so far without a wage-inflation pressure and most of the US economy is domestic services.

If the industrial slowdown sectors rebound into year end (for example as more EVs and PHEVs models are released and as supply chains reroute via Vietnam or Mexico) then there will be more pressure for the Fed to hike next year than cut adn the current slowdown will have just been a growth scare.

Next week's FOMC will be an interesting one. If the market percives the hint of a cut in September the market might then price in more than 4 cuts next year.

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