Sunday 1 September 2019

Are the Leading Economic Indicators predicting a recession next year?

The LEI has leveled off. By my count this has happened 11 times in this chart associated with 7 recessions. If it goes flat YoY that usually leads to a recession.

2 of the false signals were in the 90s. I guess driven by the events of 97/98 in one of them.
5/10 LEIs are causing the weakness. While the 5 not contributing are mostly financial market/ jobs linked

Further tariff escalation or a slow down in the consumer might be enough to push the US into a recession next year

Here is a link to Ed Yardeni's report.

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