Tuesday 27 June 2017

PDVSA bonds holding steady...

PDVSA bonds haven't sold off much despite the increasing anti-Maduro violence, economic problems and the view on the oil price souring. PDVSA's production profile has been falling steadily over the last few years presumably due to lack of capex. If the market thought the curve should be flat in the 30s 15 months ago, pricing in a certainty of default, hard to see why it should be in the 50s now and only partially pricing in default risks. Shown are the Nov 2021 USD bonds.

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