Fourth Turning: oil independence and Jerusalem

US transitions almost to oil independence, doesnt need client regimes in the Middle East and then recognises Jerusalem as Israeli Capital. 

More generally the US turns towards unilateralism and isolationism and rejects the institutional framework that it set up post-WW2.

Into the vacuum steps China with its belt and road plan; a new superpower emerging for a new century.

All of this fits into the Fourth Turning; political actors, geopolitical developments, various instabilities, the international institutional breakdown.