The last real credit cycle India had was pretty much 2003-2008. Starting with the equity markets emerging from a 2000-2003 bear market. During that credit cycle, the equity index more than tripled. In fact, from the bottom to the top it was more like a 6x.
Interst rates in India have been cut significantly below nominal GDP growth, and that loose policy should help start a new credit cycle.
This time around the starting point for equities is following a big post-Modi rally, so less attractive. P/E ratios are relatively high, and P/B value ratios are not super cheap. For example the Nifty index is on about 3.4x P/B value now versus more like 2.1x in Q2-2003.
The value instead can be found in private credit (NPLs, distressed and new direct lending) and commercial real estate and infrastructure equity.
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