Friday 20 October 2017

Thoughts on the next Fed chair, USD, rates

When the bubble is this big, no one dares pop it. Aka the PBoC doctrine... So Powell is the insider front runner.

That said the Fed has a legal mandate and will have to gradually withdraw policy.

So given the market seems to doubt the Fed can hike, the pain trade now is repricing in more hikes and a higher terminal rate.

Trump passing Koch brothers transcribed tax cuts and any evidence of Core PCE rebound or wage inflation would trigger it. This could trigger a risk off, USD final blow off top rotation.

However moving into next year as it becomes painfully clear that the Fed will have to remain negative in real terms for as far as the eye can see and that any wage inflation will basically be let run, within reason, then the Trump administration will set the path for a weak USD regime.

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