Tuesday 14 January 2020

Global prime residential inventory overhang

One of my contacts used to tell me there was no connection between Toronto and say London or New York prime. I have discussed these markets, including Hong Kong in the past.

Its remarkable how even people who work in investment research cant join basic macro dots like; low rates globally, a financialised economic recovery since 2008 supporting certain key cities, these same global gateway city prime residential markets seeing Chinese money laundering buying and then in reaction to high prices developers scrambling to deliver supply with a lag. 

But the slow moving implosion is real, even if continuing low rates have slowed the pace: "Nearly half of new condo units in Manhattan that came to market after 2015, or 3,695 of 7,727 apartments, remain unsold" 

In the UK its a tale of London and SE prime and everywhere else. 

Research by Savills on London vs the rest of the country. Ex-London house prices are pegged to incomes. 

The London prime market has 1000 completed but unsold properties weighing over it, while affordable London sees a huge shortage. 

I think there is a lot of shaddow inventory beyond that. Property let or AirBnB'd in the hope the market rebounds. 

Every opportunity the estate agents have they call the bottom. I think these markets clear at a 5% or so rental yield.

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