Thursday 2 April 2020

Policy failure and the Q3 recession

The self-inflicted recession of Q3 coming up. S&P hasnt quite figured it out yet, but should sometime later this month or early next and drive the next, liquidation phase. 

If Trump can get a truce on the oil war (since writing this he tweeted a deal with Russia and Saudi) and oil up to $45 or so that would help HY credit and probably help the S&P upside bounce for a couple more weeks. But after that reality should set in. 

And per this doctor, the all societal lock down is basically unnecessary.

We have another case of supposed experts, with their claims and projections propagandised by a failing media Fourth Estate, all talking their book with an eye on research funding/ ad revenues and distorting public policy at great cost to everyone else. 

The continued and repeated failure of leadership by career politicans with little knowledge, experience or confidence outside of their narrow world is a disaster. 

The true Corona mortality rate will be a fraction of 1% once ARDS patients (young people dying of their own auto-immune response that can be treated with HCQ, zinc, anti-virals and zpack) & those already dying of chronic illness are excluded from the numbers. 

Most of those <1% fatalities will be retirees with existing health conditions. Certainly they should self isolate.

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