Thursday 5 April 2018

Russel Napier on the Fed balance sheet unwind

My views:

Bank credit growth stalled in Feb as banks liquidated Treasuries and other securities but it has continued its slow growth path in March.  Maybe the rise is Libor vs OIS is part explained by foreign banks and some of their overleveraged customers being hit with duration or other losses. The next shoe to drop in my view is probably people long USD duration; so principally leveraged prime real estate, and leveraged USD borrowers. 
We are already seeing prime residential in places like New York, London, Toronto more or less in freefall.

Next up, downwards rent reviews for offices.

But for the domestic US economy rates are still low and the Fed has not reduced that much of its balance sheet.

As such I think we are still in the transition phase of the last cycle having more or less ended and the new cycle not having started and avoiding a recession in between via low interest rates.

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