Monday 24 February 2020

The Bond market calls out for more rate cuts from the Fed

The US 10 yr yield has never closed a month lower than this and is within about 4bps of the all time lows in 2016 

I think the environment echoes the late 60s and 70s where the Fed was forced to go through several hiking and cutting cycles to try and balance growth, employment and inflation. 

The bond market is clearly saying cut 2-3 times. Fed funds is pricing about 1% EFFR by the end of the year now.

The 60s and 70s show the outlook for equities is very dependent on the path of profits. A 5-10% fall in profits would be treated badly, while resilient profits or a rebound should be welcomed by investors.

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