In the 3 months since I posted this note: https://lnkd.in/eFwuBDj
U6 unemployment has fallen fast down to 8.4%. The last time it was here the Fed had finished their hiking cycle. With unemployment low and Core PCE likely to bounce the Fed is under pressure to normalise rates, yet since Trump was elected credit growth has stalled and many data points have started to turn down, so the Fed is hiking late into a slowing economy. Equities are still searching for an excuse to rally but bonds are focussed on the late cycle story. Seems hard to believe vol will remain low over the next few months.
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