Sunday 20 August 2017

Employers paying up for workers while the Fed remains massively behind the curve

Last time companies paid up this much for the least productive workers, the Fed had already finished its hiking cycle. 

I suspect the headline number is being subdued by baby boomers retiring at their peak earnings/ productivity or taking on some part time lower pay work prior to fully retiring. 

Eitherway the $ wage bill grew faster in H1 than $s of GDP, so we have a sectoral rebalancing already underway.

As the Fed gets forced into catch up the USD should rally and bond yields rise, which pushes back my EURUSD at 1.30 forecast for a while. It will also squeeze corporate margins even more, which low market breadth is perhaps hinting at despite the gap between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings already being almost 10%. 


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