Thursday 3 August 2017

UK and US savings rates and credit cycles, Albert Edwards

UK and US credit cycles have run about as far as they can. In both countries debt is growing about 3-3.5x as fast as GDP. Just need a trigger to reverse, whether its UK house prices falling, Fed rate hikes or some other catalyst like trade 'wars' and slowdowns in capital flows from places like China. If credit creation ground to a halt it would be worth up to 8-10% of final demand disappearing.

I feel a bit sorry for Albert, structurally he is right, but he is up against such powerful and entrenched interests who are fully committed to keeping the show on the road that the entire cycle since 2008 has played out slowly. 

The two things that are keeping the pressure off the Fed are slow wages and weakness in a few areas holding headline Core PCE down. 

Meanwhile in June and July credit growth has collapsed back to almost zero again.

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