Wednesday, 1 November 2017

USD readies to break out?

USD bounced off the 50% retracement of the bull market. The good US data is starting to suggest that the Fed's financial conditions model is not broken, conditions significantly eased this year supported by a flat curve and narrow credit spreads, and the Fed is further and further behind the curve. 




Yellen will hand over a firmly wrapped up pin to her sucessor, I guess it will be Powell now.

Im sure Powell wont be in any rush to aggressively tighten but he will be underpressure to step up the pace as part of his dual mandate as Core PCE rebounds as the drag from manufacturing, retail and durable goods passes and the headline number better reflects where US wage inflation is.
I think there is a good chance the USD index sees highs. Aginst the Yen I dont think that is a problem and Im bearish GBP as well. Question is the Euro. I think for the Euro to see a new low, say parity, we need policial risks to rear their head again as at 1.06 earlier this year the equivalanet of the Deutsche Mark and the French Franc were more or less at all time lows, as previously discussed on this blog. I dont think Catalonia is done and dusted as some market particiapants think. 






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