Tuesday 21 November 2017

Wages as a % of GDP

Wages as a % of GDP going back to post-war levels would entail almost a 20% rise. Corp profits, FIRE economy size and overall debt levels would have to fall a lot and the CA/ double deficit would need to go to a surplus. The only way to smooth the process will be a Fed staying a long way behind the curve and letting a wage-inflation cycle develop. Wages currently look to be growing 3-3.5% against a tightening labour market. Which comes back to having an inexperienced LBO guy in the Fed.

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