Thursday, 19 July 2018
FX moves: USD, EUR, JPY, CNY
The Yen and the CNY. One of the cheapest majors and one of the most expensive. On say a 2 year time horizon it might be time for the Yen to rally and CNY to devalue... with a target of >7.5c/ Yen
USD also on the cusp of a breakout
So USD up this year on a rate hike funding short squeeze, potentially a violent top. Then at some point in 2019 as the US transitions into an inflation cycle, a long term (burn off the debt) bear market starts to emerge.
For the Euro to be genuinely strong though I think we need a crisis and then an EIB bond financed belt and road plan to invest what you could call the Rhine valley goods surplus. Italy can engineer the show down on that.
Posted by Strategic macro at 03:46
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