Tuesday, 31 July 2018

US equities, USD, Chinese QE unwind, BoE and Cable...

S&P500
Did FaceBook ring the bell for the market top, at least for now? Seems like it so far.
 
USD
The worlds biggest debtor wants to take on the FX and bond markets...  

In the LBO Whitehouse you grow revenues (nominal GDP) while keeping funding costs cheap and you avoid a bad recession at all costs I really think the Fed will struggle to get past the 3-3.5% level for a wide range of reasons, and therefore the Fed stops hiking rates or is forced to by a change in mandate 

At that point the USD sinks as investors look for higher real yields elsewhere and later on the bond market revolts as the wage/ inflation cycle takes hold But this year the USD is up up up and eitherway you don't want interest rate duration from here





Chinese QE unwind.
Chinese now net sellers of CRE having been the trophy price payers last 2 years...

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3491015


BoE and scaring the Cable shorts (or could it be scarring?)
Thought this was a good short interview on the BoE and what the market has priced in. You never know, Carney might even scare the market into a brief Cable rally.


No comments:

Post a comment