Wednesday 27 November 2019

UK election registrations and voter swing to Labour

UK election

New voter registration closed last night. There have been 4.7m new voter registrations with 3.1m of them under 34 yrs old. On a 2017 voter turnout of 32m, new registrations are 15% of the 2017 vote. 

Are the polls picking up this change in the electorate? 

Young voters are massively Labour biased 60/40 vs Tories. Thats worth about 600k extra Labour votes or a 2%swing in voting bias for Labour and against the Tories. Lib Dems and SNP also benefit in addition to this. 

If you add back undecideds and refused to answer then there is about 25% of the youth vote still up for grabs so if Corbyn has a good last three weeks the Labour > Tory bias could be even greater. 

Hung Parliament?

Is the following plausible. Boris wins 300-320, vs 323 needed for a simple majority of 1. 

Corbyn constructs disagreements with SNP, then Boris forms a minority govt. Corbyn then lets him pass the WA to leave the EU. 

Corbyn will then have achieved his lifelong goals of splitting the Thatcher Tory party and delivering Brexit. 

He can hand over leadership to Stamer or whomever by the Autumn conference. That will be in the thick of a Trump/ Warren election with Warren campaigning on hard socialist credentials. Stamer then calls a confidence vote in Bojo...

We will find out soon enough. 

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