Monday 18 September 2017

Is the USD bull market really over?

I wonder if the USD bull market is really over, the Fed is far from a neutral rate setting for the real economy if you believe there is some strength in the US economy and that strength should support a gradual wage-inflation cycle. That said with the amount of leverage out there neutral rates for the financial economy are much lower than the real economy. Potentially 2-3% lower. The world is still very short USD and the EZ problems are plastered over rather than rectified.

If the Fed looks set to be on autopilot to the dot plot neutral rate of 3-4%, or if they are forced to walk the terminal rates higher in the dot plot, it could put a real squeeze on the financial economy and the USD shorts. 

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