Wednesday, 27 September 2017

Where should the US 10 year Treasury be trading?


Outside of a recession is there any reason the US 10 year cant be pushed over 3% by Fed hikes? Any sign of wage inflaiton starting to take hold should do it. Most sub-sectors of Core PCE have over 3% inflation underpinned by wages already. 





If you exclude the over 55s where there is some element of people taking part time jobs before fully retiring then wage growth is probably over 4% already.

Obviously when a recession does strike at some point then Albert Edwards will be celebrating his sub-1% yield target. 



 

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