Tuesday, 20 February 2018

The Federal deficit and the 'LBO Whitehouse'

The US Federal govt burnt through $666bn in cash and $1.16Tn in actuarial type deficits last year, 8 years into the cycle. 666 coincidentally being the number the S&P bottomed at in 2009. 

Primary dealers are forecasting roughly $1Tn cash deficits in the next two years on tax reform. Much worse than the old forecasts in the chart below.

100bps rise in Treasury financing costs is worth $150bn a year.

You have to wonder how bad the long term cyclically adjusted deficit is, $1.5Tn?

The government shows $3.5Tn of assets and $24Tn of liabilities, so this cash flow based lending par excellence.

So in the 'LBO Whitehouse', the focus will be growing the top line (nominal GDP) while capping interest costs at a relatively low level and compounding up the spread. Pretty much what China is also doing.

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