The Fed is offering >$1.5Tn to repo to Primary Dealers to buy Treasuries and clip coupons when they cut rates and resteepen the curve next week.
The ECB announced a TLRTo worth EUR2.3Tn. At -0.75%. BTPs yield 1.8%... and can be bought with no capital charge by say Deutsche Bank.
So spell this out for those who are a not focussing.
If
Deutsche Bank's market cap is €11bn and they can borrow from the ECB at
-75bps and buy BTPs at 1.8% with no risk and no capital charge, how
much of the ECBs €2.3Tn TLTRO announced yesterday do they need to use to
make €2.5bn net profits and be on 4-5x P/E, based on this one TLTRO
alone?
With some operating costs and taxes Im guessing about €130-140bn?
That would put them on 4x P/E just from this TLTRO. Surely even Deutsche cant screw this up...
There was also EUR800bn of capital relief per the twitter note below.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1238134375499337728
The Chinese cut the Reserve Ratio and that was worth $80bn or so.
https://mobile.twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1238394446716309505
The BoJ and BoE also took actions.
So in summary, between the ECB and Fed alone we just saw far in excess of $5Tn thrown at the markets...
Question is what to buy.
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