Friday, 13 March 2020

ECB and Fed unleash a $5Tn bank subsidy/ monetary carpet bombing

We are not so much witnessing a monetary bazooka being fired, as a coordinated carpet bombing

The Fed is offering >$1.5Tn to repo to Primary Dealers to buy Treasuries and clip coupons when they cut rates and resteepen the curve next week.

The ECB announced a TLRTo worth EUR2.3Tn. At -0.75%. BTPs yield 1.8%... and can be bought with no capital charge by say Deutsche Bank.


So spell this out for those who are a not focussing.

If Deutsche Bank's market cap is €11bn and they can borrow from the ECB at -75bps and buy BTPs at 1.8% with no risk and no capital charge, how much of the ECBs €2.3Tn TLTRO announced yesterday do they need to use to make €2.5bn net profits and be on 4-5x P/E, based on this one TLTRO alone?

With some operating costs and taxes Im guessing about €130-140bn?

That would put them on 4x P/E just from this TLTRO. Surely even Deutsche cant screw this up...

There was also EUR800bn of capital relief per the twitter note below.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1238134375499337728

The Chinese cut the Reserve Ratio and that was worth $80bn or so.

https://mobile.twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1238394446716309505
 
The BoJ and BoE also took actions.

So in summary, between the ECB and Fed alone we just saw far in excess of $5Tn thrown at the markets...

Question is what to buy.



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