Monday 23 March 2020

Is Corona just a trivial seasonal flu that caught the medics off guard?

This is an interesting article on Corona.

The true fatality rate is likely to be a fraction of 1%. 

If you exclude those who are in the process of dying anyway (which are excluded from flu stats) and those dying from CRS who are now being treated with auto-immune suppressing drugs like chloroquine and once they have delivered some more respirators to treat pneumonia... 

I think after that you are left with a true mortality rate that is a fraction of 1% & is mainly confined to the over 65s. So similar to seasonal flu. 

Corona has not really spread in areas >10 degrees C, and even the UK now is going above that temperature as we enter Spring. 

As they curtail case growth and are confident they wont be overwhelmed with pneumonia cases vs bed/ ventilator capacity, then the movement restrictions should be lifted and the market will forget about Corona quickly. 

I was accused last week of 'downplaying' Corona by two people, but I am just looking at & trying to understand the numbers, the response & outcome. If my conclusion was millions would die, I would say so, but to me it looks like a new strain of virus caught the medics off guard, it spread fast in cool weather but now they have the measure of it & are successfully treating it. 


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